A list combining the four central Arab parties in Israel, Hadash, Ta’al, Ra’am, and Balad, would win at least 13 seats if an election were held today, while running separately could lead to a loss in representation, according to a new poll carried out by StatNet on behalf of the Abraham Initiatives NGO.
According to the poll, which was carried out amongst 750 respondents between February 10-17, voter turnout in the next election is expected to be either 53% or 47%, depending on different statistical models. If voter turnout rises to 60%, a joint list would win 15 seats, and at 70%, it could win 17 seats, the poll showed. There are currently 10 seats from Arab parties – five from Hadash-Ta’al and five from Ra’am. Balad did not pass the electoral threshold.
If each party runs separately, all four will be in danger of falling below the electoral threshold, the poll showed. If Ra’am ran alone and the three other parties ran together, the three parties would win nine seats, but Ra’am could fall under the threshold.
Voter participation declined the younger the voter was, the poll showed. Participation was 56% amongst Arab citizens above the age of 55, 48% for Arab citizens aged 45-54, 44% for ages 35-44, and just 38% for Arab citizens aged 18-34.
Voter participation also differed based on religion: 55% of Druze citizens, 49% of Christian Arab citizens, and 47% of Muslims. Muslims make up 84% of Israel’s Arab population.
Ra'am Party leader Mansour Abbas casts his vote at a voting station in Maghar, during the Knesset Elections, on November 1, 2022. (credit: JAMAL AWAD/FLASH90)
Arab participation in coalitions
The poll also examined attitudes amongst Arab citizens regarding participation in governing coalitions. 44% said they supported joining any coalition; 33% only supported joining a coalition if it was comprised of Center-Left parties; 12% said they opposed joining a coalition but supported ad-hoc collaboration with the coalition in order to achieve gains for the Arab sector; 9% said that under no circumstance should an Arab party join the coalition; and 2% did not know.
Even amongst those who said they would not participate in the election, 38% supported joining any coalition, 24% supported joining a Center-Left coalition, and 13% supported ad-hoc collaboration. 19% rejected any cooperation.
Some 61% of voters for Ra’am supported joining any coalition, with an additional 31% saying that the party should only join a Center-Left coalition. Among Hadash-Ta’al voters, 36% supported entering any coalition, and 42% supported entering only a Center-Left coalition; among Balad voters, the numbers were 28% and 43%, respectively.
The most important issue for Arab voters by far was curbing crime and violence in the Arab sector (64.2%). 19.4% said that stopping the war and ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict were the most important issues.
Asked what issues would increase their likelihood to vote, 25% said improving personal safety, 23.7% said toppling the current coalition, 15.4% said strengthening the influence of Arab parties on decisions regarding the Arab sector, and 13.8% said their likelihood to vote would grow if the Joint List were formed anew.
