Defense Minister Israel Katz on Tuesday moved the yardstick for the end of the IDF's renewal of hostilities against Hamas and for a new deal to become dependent on a return of all of the hostages and a removal of threat to Israel's Gaza Corridor residents.
Until now, Israel had said it was steady to extend the ceasefire for approximately another 50 days in exchange for 11 live hostages plus some deceased ones, and the US had offered a ceasefire extension in return for five live hostages plus some deceased ones.
Hamas had dropped its demand for a complete IDF withdrawal before it released any more hostages but was only offering to release one live hostage and four deceased hostages, all of whom have joint Israel-American citizenship.
But if Israel sticks to Katz's benchmark, all of those interim deals would be off the table. They would force an end game with Hamas of either returning all of the hostages for a limited-time ceasefire with no guarantee that the IDF would not renew hostilities or of Hamas agreeing to receiving "immunity" if its leaders agreed to expulsion from Gaza.
On the other hand, Katz did not demand Hamas agree to expulsion before ending the current round of fighting, rather demanding returning a sense of safety to southern residents, a goal which is more vague.
Re-establishing their ranks?
In recent days and weeks, there was increased evidence that Hamas had reestablished its 25,000 fighter military structure, even if using many minors, was rebuilding military defensive positions, and was considering seeking to penetrate Israel's border again, even if in a limited fashion.
Katz even mentioned this threat earlier this week to some southern residents.
How Israel would judge if Hamas remained in Gaza, but was being less active about rushing to reestablish its military power is unclear.
Another possibility was that when Katz said "Hamas must understand that the rules of the game have changed" and that it must release all of the hostages or face "the opening of the gates of hell" – really he meant that if there is no full deal soon, the IDF will engage in a full invasion, but that after such a full invasion, various negotiating options might be back on the table.
