If new elections were held today, the polls suggest a new party led by Naftali Bennett would win and could form a government—with or without Likud.
But there are two fundamental flaws in that assumption. First, elections aren’t happening anytime soon. By bringing Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party back into the government, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has secured the budget’s passage, preventing the coalition from falling over that issue.
Likewise, the haredi threat to leave the government over the haredi conscription/exemption bill is an empty pistol.
The haredi politicians know that this is about as good a government as they could dream of in terms of their interests, and given the public fury over their continued refusal to share in the country’s physical defense, the next election could well produce a coalition that excludes them altogether.
The second flaw is assuming Bennett’s current polling numbers will hold when elections do take place—by October 2026 at the latest.
Since 2013, Bennett has led three different parties in five elections, and in all of them, he has consistently polled higher than his actual results at the ballot box. In his first race as head of the Jewish Home party in 2013, an Israel Radio poll 19 days before the election projected 18 seats; he took 12.
His worst poll-vs-result discrepancy came in April 2019, the first of the spiral of five elections in under four years. A Channel 13 poll just four days before the elections had his New Right party winning six seats. It didn’t win a seat, failing to pass the electoral threshold.
Even in the March 23, 2021, election—the one that ultimately crowned him prime minister —a Channel 12 poll 13 days before the election gave his Yamina party 13 seats. In the end, it won six.
On average, Bennett underperformed in the polls across these five elections by 48%.
What does that mean? This means that if last Friday’s Ma’ariv poll predicted that his hypothetical new party would win 25 seats and become the largest in the Knesset, historical precedents suggest cutting that number by almost half. Thirteen or 14 seats would be a more realistic estimate.
What makes Bennett’s polling numbers particularly striking is that they are high despite the public knowing nothing about this party—who’s in it or what it stands for. And Bennett, wisely—Benny Gantz-like—isn’t saying.
How is this like Gantz? In 2019, when Gantz transitioned from IDF chief of staff to head of the Blue and White Party, he was careful to speak in vague generalities through most of the campaign. As an ex-military man, no one really knew where he stood on the central issues of the day—
Gaza, the diplomatic process with the Palestinians, Iran, the settlements, haredi conscription —and everyone was able to see in him what they wanted.
Right-wing voters saw someone who understood their concerns; left-wing voters saw the same. By being everything to everyone, he won 35 seats, matching Likud. Gantz’s success reinforced the old political adage: sometimes, it’s better to keep quiet and let people assume they know your views rather than take definitive positions and alienate potential supporters.
Bennett, who is positioning himself for a comeback, is adopting a similar stance. Though he has made clear he believes that this government must go, Bennett has not made clear what he thinks about the hostage negotiations, the continuation of the war in Gaza, or the haredi draft bill —the issues that are splitting the nation.
Though he does appear in the international media—vigorously defending Israel against its critics—he has not given an interview to the Israeli press in a long time. And why should he? As soon as he takes a firm stand, he risks losing voters.
A closer look at Ma’ariv’s Friday poll sheds light on where Bennett’s projected 25 seats are coming from: 12 seats come from the right-wing parties, including five from parties in the coalition (Likud [3], Otzma Yehudit [1], Shas [1], seven from Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu), and 13 from the center and left-wing parties (National Unity [7], Yesh Atid [4], the Democrats [2]).
That 20 of his 25 seats are coming from opposition parties may explain Bennett’s head-scratching decision on Friday — 17 minutes after Shabbat started in Jerusalem — to attack popular Channel 12 journalist Amit Segal, a favorite among the national religious and the Right.
A potential political error
In an open message on X to Segal—who could not respond immediately because he is Shabbat observant—Bennett skewered him for defending the “failed government” and shielding “those under whose watch Israeli citizens were abandoned, communities were conquered, and thousands of Jews were murdered, raped, and kidnapped.”
Bennett went further, calling Segal a “pathetic servant” for Netanyahu at a time when the country is on the verge of a constitutional crisis, tens of thousands of reservists are being called up, and the hostages are at risk.
“You were once a respected journalist, Amit. You have become a submissive mouthpiece. What a shame,” he wrote, slamming Segal for “searching my past tweets” instead of asking Netanyahu about the “absolute victory he promised.”
And that was the reason for Bennett’s wrath. Just before Bennett sent his tweet, Segal posted several of Bennett’s tweets from 2018 and 2019, criticizing the Supreme Court and being in favor of judicial reform on his Telegram channel.
Likewise, Segal wrote in that morning’s Yediot Ahronot that the real reason Netanyahu was so eager to get Ben-Gvir back into the coalition was not because of the budget — Netanyahu had the votes to pass the budget — but to keep Bennett from offering reserved slots on his yet-to-be-formed list to possible renegades in the Likud, such as Sharon Haskel, if they would vote against the budget, thereby bringing down the government.
But what does Bennett gain by venting his anger at Segal—especially when Segal is popular among many of the voters Bennett is trying to win over? This question, however, is based on the assumption that Bennett’s tweet was premeditated and not the result of a momentary flash of anger at a journalist with a massive social media following.
If it was an impulsive outburst, that in itself could alienate voters who want to see a new kind of political discourse, are tired of political vitriol, and dislike seeing politicians target individual journalists.
But if it was premeditated, what was the endgame? What does Bennett gain?
Segal, a political commentator with a sharp eye, offered his answer in a long, biting post he wrote soon after Shabbat ended.
In 2021, Segal said, Bennett took votes from the Right—seven mandates’ worth—and brought them to the center-left, enabling the formation of a government with Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, Liberman, and Mansour Abbas’ Ra’am party. This time, Segal argued, Bennett is positioning himself to do the opposite: take votes from the center-left and enable the creation of a right-wing government.
One way to curry favor with the Left, Segal suggested, is to target a high-profile right-wing journalist.
Whether or not that is true is open to speculation. But by attacking Segal, Bennett opened himself up to that type of counterargument — one that could plant doubts in the minds of some of those potential voters he is currently attracting from Yesh Atid, the National Unity party, and Yair Golan’s Democrats.
Bennett was doing well in the polls by staying quiet. That strategy was working. Changing course by attacking Segal seems like an unforced political error.
