Israel has seriously considered attacking Iran’s nuclear program multiple times since October 2024, The Jerusalem Post can reveal now, following the New York Times report.
Early Thursday, the New York Times reported on Israel’s hope to attack Iran’s nuclear program this May, with direct support from the US.
However, the Post understands that right after the Islamic Republic’s attack with around 200 ballistic missiles of Israel on October 1, and following the Shaldag special forces success against an underground clandestine facility in Syria on September 8, Jerusalem had seriously considered taking out Tehran’s nuclear program at the time.
In real time, then presidential candidate Donald Trump even called on Israel to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program.
Multiple top Israeli officials were theoretically open to the idea, and the air force was more confident than ever that it could pull off such an operation following a successful attack on Iran in April 2024 and successful attacks on Yemen, which is even farther away from Israel than the Islamic Republic.
But top Israeli officials were not ready to carry out such an operation without US approval, including American protection from an anticipated even larger ballistic missile retaliation by Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Given opposition by the Biden administration, Israel opted to eliminate Iran’s S-300 air defenses and much of its ballistic missile production capabilities.
The air force’s operation was so successful and so completely wiped out Iran’s advanced air defenses, that, along with the Syria on the ground operation success, suddenly some top Israeli officials shifted their understanding that eliminating Iran’s nuclear facilities was possible in a best case scenario, but with lots of questions marks, to the idea that it was doable with very high confidence.
However, once again, Biden officials put up a stop sign, and Israeli officials decided that, given Trump’s electoral victory, they would wait for him to enter office and then try to sell him on an attack in his opening months.
Various attempts to bring Washington into attack
As the NYT correctly reports, various attempts were made to not only have Israel attack Iran, but also to bring Washington into the attack.
This ran into the opposition of portions of the Trump administration, who are generally anti-war and highly preferred a deal with Iran, especially in a scenario where the US could be dragged into a war.
Israeli officials also hoped to carry out the attack while US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commanding Officer Michael E. Kurilla was still in power, given that he is stepping down soon.
However, Trump ultimately opted for nuclear diplomacy with Iran first, and even later sent Kurilla to deliver the message that Israel would need to stand down from attacking.
NYT reveals scenarios of Israel in a hybrid attack with the US, either a massive bombing campaign or a combined attack using airstrikes and commando raids, as Israel did to Syria’s underground facility.
Iran has a major underground nuclear facility at Fordow, is building a new facility at Natanz, and has other underground facilities as well that it has advertised through public videos.
The report from the NYT does not discuss Israel attacking Iran alone, which top Israeli defense officials believe the Jewish state could pull off, though they would highly prefer a US missile defense blanket and even some direct American involvement in the attack.
Some Israeli officials are concerned that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has put too much emphasis on Israel carrying out such an attack only with the direct involvement of the US – something which seems less necessary given that they view Iran’s remaining air defenses as negligible compared to Israel's cutting-edge air power capabilities.
The leak of Israeli plans to the NYT appears to be an American attempt to send a message to Khamenei about how close he came to losing his nuclear program and how close he could come if the current nuclear talks do not succeed.
However, if Trump does strike a deal with Khamenei, and if that deal is “mediocre” by Israeli standards, Jerusalem may need to act alone.
Trump recently sent CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Israel to meet with Netanyahu and Mossad Director David Barnea to discuss various such covert options, which would still fall short of an open major air strike.
The book Target Tehran describes Mossad operations and alleged Mossad operations from 2002 to 2023, destroying nuclear facilities at Natanz twice, at Karaj, Iranian drone facilities, assassinating Tehran’s nuclear chief Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, and other operations.
Some of these attacks took place during Barnea’s era.
The Post understands that Barnea and Ratcliffe have an excellent relationship and have met multiple times already since the new CIA director took office, with many American intelligence officials entranced by Israel’s operations against Iran over the years and its beeper attacks against Hezbollah in September 2024.
Within Israel, the heated debate is ongoing about how long Israel can wait to attack Iran to see if Trump can get a sufficient nuclear deal to push back the Iranian nuclear threat, and whether it should still launch airstrikes or covert attacks in the event of a mediocre deal by Trump.
