The security cabinet passed a new plan for the war in Gaza that envisions taking control of territory and conquering parts of or all of Gaza. Israel’s leadership has said that the goal now is to hold ground.
Its plan also envisages having Gazan civilians move to an area where they can receive humanitarian aid and be separated from Hamas.
This is a bold, ambitious plan. However, like all plans, it may not survive contact with the enemy. This is because Hamas is still burrowed deep throughout central Gaza and Gaza City.
Dubbed Gideon’s Chariots, this operation is supposed to defeat Hamas and lead to the hostages being freed. The operation will apparently wait until after US President Donald Trump visits the Middle East in May.
Then the IDF, which will supposedly have been bolstered by thousands of reservists, will go into Gaza. There will be a large evacuation of the entirety of the population from areas of fighting to Gaza’s southern region.
IDF to remain in conquered areas
Unlike the past, "the IDF intends to remain in any area that is conquered to prevent terrorism from returning. It will handle cleansed locations according to the Rafah model, where all threats were eliminated, and it became part of the security zone,” a security source said.
There are different views regarding what will occur once these goals are achieved. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that it is important for people to stop being afraid to use the word “occupation.” The operation’s goal will be occupation and conquest, with long-term boots on the ground.
Some optimists believe Israel has finally made the decision it should have made back in October 2023, as the move could result in clearing Hamas and removing it.
However, there is still no clear alternative to Hamas in Gaza. Nature abhors a vacuum. In a vacuum of power, it is unclear if Hamas will simply return or find a way to insert itself among civilians who are evacuated.
The other question is whether this operation will be the game changer that some hope it will be. Will Israel remove Hamas and then control Gaza indefinitely?
Will this turn the clock back to 2004, before Israel’s 2005 Disengagement from the Gaza Strip?
In those days, the IDF controlled Gaza, but it did not have boots on the ground everywhere. Generally, the IDF did not seek to patrol the cities but rather defended the Jewish communities. After the Disengagement, there were no more Jewish communities to protect.
The new operation will involve the IDF being deployed in areas of Gaza in a way that it was not deployed there before.
The army has had a policy over the last decades of not remaining in Palestinian urban areas. In the West Bank, it carries out raids but does not remain there. The military does not deal with civilians or administer aid.
However, the operation in Gaza appears to envision the IDF having a larger hand in dealing with these issues. This is a major departure that would return the IDF to a role that is not even at 2004 levels, but something similar to the 1990s or 1980s.
Back then, the IDF was deployed in Arab areas in the West Bank and Gaza because the Oslo Accords had not yet created the Palestinian Authority nor the autonomy it later enjoyed in running Arab cities.
That said, there is also a chance that this new operation will not take place, and instead, there is some deal.
However, it does appear as though some people think that this operation will happen, and they want Israel to begin a long-term control or occupation of Gaza.
This would essentially unify Gaza with Israel and the West Bank.
What does Hamas think?
Hamas had committed so many atrocities on October 7 that it knew Israel would return to Gaza. The terrorist organization’s objective was to end the process of Israel “managing” or “shrinking” the conflict.Hamas has always thrived on war and conflict. It was founded in the late 1980s during the First Intifada to profit from the conflict.
The terrorist organization thrived in the 1990s, opposing the Oslo peace process using bombings. In the Second Intifada, it once again gained influence through warfare. After the Disengagement in 2005, Hamas took over Gaza. However, it found itself under siege and contained there.
Hamas has been plotting how to escape Gaza since the 2009 war in Gaza. It moved its key leaders to Doha, a US ally.It then received funding from Doha via Israel. It was able to lull Israel into a false sense of security, which ended when it decided to launch its invasion on October 7, 2023.
The terrorist organization wanted to use the war to take over the West Bank. It held the belief that, via hostage deals, it could drag out the war for years and slowly gain popularity.
Hamas also estimates that the Palestinian Authority’s head, Mahmoud Abbas, is not likely to survive much longer, since he is nearing 90 years old.
This would give Hamas what it wants in the West Bank. Backed by Doha and Turkey, along with Iran and perhaps Russia or China, it could then catapult itself into the West Bank. It wants Gaza reunited with the West Bank.
As such, Hamas may hope that the new Israeli operation continues and that Gaza is unified with the West Bank.Israel’s policy since 2007 has been to keep Hamas-run Gaza separate from the PA-run West Bank.
Top officials have said that they do not want Hamas or the PA running Gaza. However, so far, a third polity has not been found to administer the area.
The new operation does not seem to have a vision for who will govern the civilian areas. There is a fresh initiative to get humanitarian aid to Gaza’s civilians that is supposed to bypass Hamas.
How will Hamas members who dress as civilians be kept out of this new system? Many hurdles remain.
