In a recent interview on the Soar Financially, precious metals expert Jordan Roy-Byrne, author of "Gold, Silver, The Greatest Bull Market Has Begun," doubled down on his conviction that gold has entered a significant long-term bull market, with a crucial breakout confirmed in early 2025. Roy-Byrne, also the publisher of "The Daily Gold," provided compelling technical analysis and historical context to support his bullish outlook, while also offering key insights into the potential trajectory of silver and gold mining stocks.
Roy-Byrne reiterated his earlier assertion that the bull market in gold commenced with a decisive technical breakout in March 2024. He highlighted the significance of gold breaking out of a "13-year cup and handle pattern" as well as a "10-year long base against the 60/40 portfolio." These long-term breakouts, according to Roy-Byrne, are historically indicative of substantial and sustained upward movements.
"Yes, it has," Roy-Byrne stated firmly when asked if the greatest bull run in gold had begun. "You go back to March of 2024, a little over a year ago, gold broke out from a 13-year cup and handle pattern. And when you get breakouts from these types of really long bases, they produce significant moves that last… might be a little shorter than that, but breaking out of a 13-year base for gold, that is significant."
This breakout against the traditional 60/40 investment portfolio, comprising 60% stocks and 40% bonds, is particularly noteworthy. Roy-Byrne explained that this signals a fundamental shift in capital allocation, with money moving away from conventional assets into gold. This dynamic, he emphasized, has been absent for several years, even as gold trended upwards. The recent surge, accompanied by increased interest in silver and mining stocks, marks a significant change.
While gold has taken center stage, Roy-Byrne sees significant potential in silver, albeit with a slightly different timeline. He views silver as a "leverage play on gold," suggesting that its major outperformance typically follows specific patterns in gold's price action.
"Silver's been tough, but I think over the next couple of years, I mean, it's it's you want to be more so in silver than gold," Roy-Byrne advised.
He pointed out that historically, after gold breaks out and makes a substantial move, it often retraces to test its 200-day moving average. It is during the subsequent rebound of gold from this level that silver tends to begin outperforming. Roy-Byrne anticipates a potential test of gold's 200-day moving average in the coming months, which he believes could present a prime buying opportunity for silver before it potentially surges.
Regarding the gold-silver ratio, which has recently exceeded 100, Roy-Byrne acknowledged the difficulty in predicting its peak. While a recession could potentially push the ratio higher in the short term, he believes that the current elevated level suggests that silver is nearing a period of outperformance against gold.
Roy-Byrne remains highly optimistic about gold mining stocks, emphasizing their strong correlation with the inflation-adjusted gold price (gold divided by the CPI). He highlighted that this ratio has broken out of a "45-year base," indicating a potentially explosive period for mining profitability and stock performance.
"So Kai, if we get into a downturn… and you don't have these cost pressures for miners, but if the Fed has to cut rates, and you know, then all these capital flows, they keep going into gold and you gold goes to 4,000 5,000 without that much pressure on costs… you're going to see these margins explode to the upside. And so that there is a chance that you could see a real golden age for minors and juniors over the next few years," Roy-Byrne elaborated.
He also noted the historically low allocation to gold and mining ETFs as a percentage of overall ETF assets, suggesting significant room for capital inflows into the sector as the bull market matures. While acknowledging that miners haven't yet exhibited their typical 3:1 leverage to gold's gains, Roy-Byrne attributes this to ongoing capital flows into broader equities and the relatively low valuations of mining companies, which he believes have significant upside potential.
In the near term, Roy-Byrne anticipates a correction in the gold price, likely testing its 200-day moving average, which he estimates could fall in the $2950-$3000 range. For silver, he sees strong support around the $28-$29 level and significant resistance at $35. He envisions a scenario where gold corrects while silver consolidates in the $29-$34 range, building energy for its eventual outperformance.
Throughout the interview, Roy-Byrne emphasized the importance of understanding historical market patterns and technical analysis to navigate the current environment. He also promoted his book, "Gold, Silver, The Greatest Bull Market Has Begun," available for free to subscribers of his website, TheDailyGold.com. Additionally, he highlighted his "Daily Gold University," a series of videos based on his book, and an upcoming technical analysis course aimed at simplifying these concepts for investors.
Jordan Roy-Byrne's latest analysis reinforces the notion that the gold market has entered a significant bull phase, with a key breakout now confirmed in 2025 based on the timeline he provided in the initial part of the interview. While near-term corrections are anticipated, the long-term outlook for gold, silver, and gold mining stocks remains exceptionally positive, driven by technical strength, shifting capital flows, and historical precedents. Investors closely watching the precious metals sector will undoubtedly find Roy-Byrne's insights invaluable in navigating the opportunities that lie ahead.
Watch the full interview:
