Jerusalem Day passed on Monday without Hamas flexing its muscles in the city, as it has in years past, signaling that the Gaza war has strengthened Israel’s control over its capital.
For three years, from 2021 to 2023, Hamas inserted itself into the Jerusalem equation, turning Jerusalem Day into a test of Israeli resolve and – by dictating redlines and issuing threats – tried to shape what Israel could or could not do in the capital.
But this year, like the year before, that changed. The IDF’s pummeling of Hamas in Gaza has taken the terrorist organization out of the Jerusalem equation – a position it had actively sought and, for a time, succeeded in claiming.
The run-up to Jerusalem Day this year passed with markedly less tension than in recent years. No threats from Hamas. No last-minute rerouting of the flag march. No rockets were fired from Gaza in response to Israelis marching through Damascus Gate to the Western Wall or even ascending the Temple Mount. No warnings to Israel to back off, “or else.”
And that alone marks a significant shift in the dynamic over Jerusalem.
Jerusalem Day with little mention of Hamas
Beginning in 2021, during the crisis in Sheikh Jarrah, Hamas positioned itself as the self-appointed defender of Jerusalem. It tried to establish an equation: if Israel acted in a way Hamas didn’t like in the city – evicting squatters in Sheikh Jarrah, allowing Jews to march through the Muslim Quarter, or letting police respond to riots on the Temple Mount – Hamas would respond with rockets from Gaza. And, at times, it did.
In May 2021, those threats culminated in rocket fire on the capital itself, the first time Hamas had directly targeted Jerusalem since 2014. At least seven rockets were launched in a symbolic and strategic attempt to position Hamas as the guardian of Jerusalem.
The timing was deliberate: on Jerusalem Day, when Israel celebrates its sovereignty over the reunified city. The message was clear: You think you are in control of Jerusalem, but you are not.
The rocket fire that day, following a Hamas ultimatum, led to Operation Guardian of the Walls, the last major military engagement between Israel and Hamas before the current war.
From that point forward, Hamas sought to institutionalize the connection: Jerusalem Day would be their trigger. An “Israeli provocation” in Jerusalem would bring retaliation from Gaza. In doing so, the terror group attempted to hijack the calendar, turning a day of celebration into an annual national security crisis.
That pattern repeated in 2022 and 2023. Each year, in the lead-up to Jerusalem Day, Hamas would issue threats. Each year, the IDF would raise alert levels. Policymakers would debate the safest routes for the march. The question was no longer whether to allow the flag march through the Old City but whether doing so would result in war.
The psychological effect was clear. Hamas had succeeded in injecting itself into Israeli decision-making over its capital. Its threats shaped policy; its rockets dictated routes. And its narrative began to take hold, particularly in international media, where Jerusalem Day was increasingly framed less as a celebration and more as a provocation.
But not this year.
This year, the day came and went with little mention of Hamas. No ultimatums. No rocket fire. No visible presence in the discourse.
Hamas, once so loud in asserting a veto over Israeli actions in the capital, was notably silent. And that silence is perhaps the clearest indicator of how far it has fallen since October 7, 2023 – now nearly 20 months ago.
The war in Gaza has decimated much of Hamas’s operational infrastructure. Its ability to launch coordinated rocket barrages, to mobilize armed factions, to project influence beyond Gaza’s borders – all of this has been severely degraded.
Hamas’s inability to make itself felt on Jerusalem Day marks a turning point. For three years, Jerusalem Day had become a barometer of Hamas' strength; this year, it became a measure of its decline. It is not as if Hamas does not want to create a link between Gaza and Jerusalem; it’s just that it is no longer able to do so.
But while Hamas was absent, another player made its presence felt on Jerusalem Day with a message of strong support that did not go unnoticed: the United States.
In recent weeks, Israel has been uneasy about signals emanating from Washington. President Donald Trump’s recent visit to the Gulf, coupled with zigzagging rhetoric on key regional issues, left some wondering whether this administration, influenced by isolationist voices like Tucker Carlson and Tulsi Gabbard, was distancing itself from traditional Israeli positions.
And then came Ambassador Mike Huckabee.
With the Old City as a backdrop, Huckabee delivered a powerful video message on Jerusalem Day. Granted, the ambassador is not in a policy-determining position on the Middle East. Still, his viewpoint is obviously not without sway inside the administration, just as other US ambassadors such as Martin Indyk, Dan Shapiro, and David Friedman did not only report to Washington from Jerusalem, but also had a subtle hand in shaping its policy toward Jerusalem.
“I want the people of Israel to know that America stands with you,” Huckabee said. “Your fight is our fight. Your enemies are our enemies. Israel’s victory is our victory. And together we will prevail, and we will pray for the peace of Jerusalem.”
Huckabee recalled how, during Trump’s first term, the president “reaffirmed the historic connection of the Jewish people to Jerusalem” by moving the embassy and recognizing the city as Israel’s “eternal capital.”
In a moment where some in Israel are questioning the depth of America’s current commitment, Huckabee’s message served as a reminder: the bond with this administration remains very strong, and the idea of an undivided Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty still resonates loudly in many quarters in America.
This symbolic reinforcement matters. As much as Hamas’s absence from Jerusalem Day highlights its declining power, American affirmation through Huckabee reinforces the legitimacy of Israeli control. Together, they form a dual message: threats from Gaza are being neutralized, and support from Washington remains firm – even as other allies are turning away.
Israel is not yet at the end of its war in Gaza. Hamas still holds 58 hostages. “Absolute victory” remains elusive. But in a region where perception often shapes reality, removing Hamas from Jerusalem’s equation – and reaffirming American support for the city’s reunification – sends a not insignificant message of resolve.
