Israeli officials are concerned that Egypt is pulling away from its peace agreement with Israel and aligning with countries hostile to Jerusalem.
As per the peace treaty, Egypt can have one mechanized division and a tank brigade in the Sinai Peninsula, totaling 47 battalions and 300 tanks.
However, Egypt now has approximately 180 battalions in Sinai — nearly four times the treaty’s limit. Meanwhile, the IDF has gotten rid of six combat divisions, thousands of tanks, half of its artillery brigades, numerous infantry and engineering units, intelligence-gathering battalions, and thousands of career soldiers.
In addition, the shortening of mandatory service for men has significantly reduced the number of active-duty combat troops.
As a result, the IDF is no longer capable of deploying sufficient forces to the Egyptian border in times of routine or emergency.
Troops are also deployed far beyond the 60-kilometer limit from the Suez Canal agreed upon in the treaty, with large forces stationed deep in Sinai, including El-Arish and areas near Rafah.
Additionally, satellite images and Egyptian propaganda videos suggest that Cairo could be preparing chemical and biological weapons for use against Israel.
Many had hoped that with IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir's recent appointment, the military would rethink its strategy so that Israel could confidently defend all its borders — from Syria and Turkey in the north, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iranian-backed terror along the Jordanian border, Egypt and Gaza in the South, and the West Bank.
Egypt's army has also grown by nearly 30%, defense sources estimate.
Relations between Jerusalem and Cairo had deteriorated as a result of the Gaza war after Hamas's October 7 attacks. Egypt recently declined to appoint an ambassador to Israel. In response, Israel has suspended plans to send its own ambassador to Cairo.
Is Cairo distancing itself from Camp David?
While Egypt has not formally renounced the Camp David Accords, Cairo is effectively distancing itself from the treaty.
The IDF is woefully unprepared to confront that possibility should Cairo pivot to open hostilities.
A major part of the threat lies in Israel’s poor intelligence coverage of developments in Egypt, with most of Israel’s top intelligence officers focused elsewhere, leaving Egypt and Sinai largely unmonitored.
There must be an immediate appointment of a dedicated intelligence officer to the Chief of Staff—a permanent IDF intelligence liaison who can maintain daily contact and provide critical, real-time updates on enemy forces and threats, as then-IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi's leadership has focused narrowly on Hamas.
Failure to recognize and respond to Egypt’s military trajectory puts all Israelis at risk.
