Reports this week indicated that US President Donald Trump may visit Saudi Arabia in the coming months. This is important because it would be his first trip abroad as president. It will also be a repeat of a trip he took during his first term.
During his first term, in May 2017, he travelled to Saudi Arabia for the US-Arab-Islamic Summit. He met with Saudi King Salman and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi during that trip, among other leaders who attended
During the May 2017 trip, Trump said, “I stand before you as a representative of the American People, to deliver a message of friendship and hope. That is why I chose to make my first foreign visit a trip to the heart of the Muslim world, to the nation that serves as custodian of the two holiest sites in the Islamic Faith.”
Trump's diplomacy skills
This was a curtain-raiser on a number of important moves the Trump administration made in the region during his first term. Many of these can roughly be described as part of the “Trump Doctrine.” This includes working with stable countries that are US partners to achieve economic gain for the US while also securing US interests. Some of this is transactional diplomacy, but it has real-world implications, such as the Abraham Accords that emerged in 2020.
Trump and his team have tended to be skeptical of traditional US allies. He has angered Canada and the US Vice-President JD Vance has had tough words for European partners. Trump has often appeared to want to pivot towards Asia and also find a way to open dialogue with Moscow. However, this has not always worked out. Having ditched most of the key members of the first Trump administration’s foreign policy team, the new administration is willing to be more flexible on many issues, from Russia to Iran.
The first military move of the new administration has been the bombing of the Houthis to secure the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia fought the Houthis from 2015 to 2022, but they were unable to dislodge the Iranian-backed group. Instead it was China that helped broker a deal between Riyadh and Tehran that cooled tensions. This was part of a broader trend that took place during the Biden admin.
During Trump’s first term the Saudis had confronted Qatar, and a Gulf crisis resulted. When that crisis ended in 2020, Riyadh was willing to be more flexible on many issues because it was skeptical of continued Western support.
Now that Trump is back, many of the Gulf countries will be pleased. They tend to prefer his style of politics and they trust the US administration a bit more than what they saw under Biden and Obama. For this reason, Trump is expected to get a warm welcome in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states he may visit. His visit will also come as the timeline of his letter to Iran, sent via the UAE, will be coming up against a 60-day deadline for talks. He sent the letter in mid-March; therefore by mid-May, it will be sixty days.
Other issues are in motion. The Saudis have hosted US-Ukraine and US-Russia talks. This could mean that any visit might coincide with movement not only on the Iran file but the Ukraine file as well. Trump will want to see wins on one of those fronts, and possibly progress in Gaza or Syria.
Overall, the Gulf states are promising ground for the Trump doctrine. They present countries that are generally positive in their outlook toward the US and the Trump administration. They are less skeptical than Europe where polls show increasingly negative views of the US. In addition the trip may be less fraught than a trip to Asia where US threats of tariffs appear to have ruffled feathers in Japan and South Korea, among other countries. China is working to cultivate Japan and South Korea ties amid concerns over US moves. In addition, it does not seem the Trump team has a particular interest in the two Five Eyes countries in Asia: Australia and New Zealand.
On March 31, the Guardian reported comments by former Australian Secretary of Defence Dennis Richardson characterizing the US as a “less reliable and a more demanding ally.” However, he said Australia should continue with the AUKUS submarine deal.
Under the deal, the US will sell Australia up to five nuclear-powered submarines by 2032. “The worst possible thing we could do at this point would be to change course,” he said. The point is that countries such as Canada and Australia, key US allies, are more circumspect now. Gulf countries are less so because they already went through the challenge of the Obama years when they felt the US was walking away from the Middle East. They have come to terms with a more chaotic US foreign policy. They have hedged on things by considering closer work with China-backed economic groupings such as BRICS or the SCO. They also orient towards India. India, a former leader of the non-aligned movement, also positions itself in a unique place in terms of global power and foreign policy. This is why Trump will get a positive reception in the Gulf and also secure more wins in that arena than many other places.
