Developments in the Qatargate affair and the dismissal of Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) chief Ronen Bar did not significantly alter the political landscape this week, with the coalition at 54 seats and the opposition—excluding Arab parties—at 56, according to a Friday Maariv poll.
Likud, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, dropped two seats this week, landing at 22, while the Democrats gained two, rising to 12. Other party shifts were within a single mandate, leaving the overall balance between the blocs intact.
Even in a scenario where Naftali Bennett leads a party, the bloc distribution remains unchanged compared to last week. Likud’s drop to 19 seats is offset by a corresponding increase in the Democrats’ tally from 10 to 12, keeping the coalition at 49 seats versus an opposition majority of 61, led by Bennett.
Public opinion on renewed fighting in Gaza
The poll also examined public opinion on the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
A majority of Israelis—57%—believe Israel should “continue fighting with full force until Hamas agrees to a deal.” Meanwhile, 34% think the fighting should stop in favor of negotiations, and 9% are undecided. This divide is largely partisan—while 89% of coalition voters support intensifying military action, opposition voters are split, with 51% favoring an end to the fighting and 40% calling for escalation.
When asked about hostage negotiations, fewer than a third of Israelis—29%—said that if the hostages are not released within two weeks, Israel should halt military operations and return to negotiations. Instead, most respondents supported more aggressive measures, with 38% backing the seizure and annexation of Gaza territory and 23% favoring an expanded military campaign, including a ground invasion. Among coalition voters, 59% support territorial annexation, whereas opposition voters lean toward a ceasefire and renewed talks (40%).
The survey also gauged opinions on a potential constitutional crisis, revealing a stark divide. If such a crisis were to occur, 38% of Israelis said they would follow Supreme Court rulings, while 35% would adhere to government directives. This split is particularly pronounced along political lines, with 80% of coalition supporters siding with the government and 73% of opposition voters saying they would obey the Supreme Court.
Regarding Netanyahu’s dismissal of the Shin Bet chief, public opinion is sharply divided. Nearly half of Israelis—46%—believe the prime minister’s motives were political, while 40% consider the move justified on professional grounds, and 14% remain undecided. The partisan split is once again evident—76% of coalition supporters say the decision was professional, whereas an identical 76% of opposition voters believe it was politically driven.
The Maariv poll was conducted by Lazar Research, led by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in collaboration with the online survey panel Panel4All.co.il. It was carried out between March 19-20, 2025, among 501 respondents, representing Israel’s adult population (Jewish and Arab citizens) aged 18 and over. The survey has a maximum margin of error of ±4.4%.
