The new US administration is continuing to fashion its policies in the Middle East and globally. US President Donald Trump hit the ground running with the hostage deal brokered just a day before his inauguration and then suggested that Gazans could be resettled elsewhere.
However, since then, the ceasefire has ended, and the administration has sent a letter to Iran offering discussions about a new deal. The Iranians have rejected direct talks but are open to indirect talks.
The Trump administration faces choices in April. It began airstrikes on the Houthis on March 15 and is continuing to do so, with the USS Harry Truman carrier strike group spearheading these operations. The strikes against the Houthis have also been in the spotlight because of the controversy over how they were discussed on the Signal messaging platform.
However, the White House has stood firm. Those involved in the Signal talks are not going to be removed, and the administration is pushing forward with the campaign against the Houthis. More aircraft carriers could be deployed to the region in the next month, not only to be used against the Houthis but also as a warning to Iran.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration has also moved B-2 stealth bombers to the US Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean. This is a clear message that the United States now has more airpower in the region. Additionally, flying out of Diego Garcia is less controversial than flying out of bases in Qatar or the UAE because those states don’t want Iran or the Houthis to retaliate.
Trump doctrine
Recent comments on NBC indicate that Trump is warning Iran that if the country does not agree to a deal, then it could face bombing. Also, the White House appears to be concerned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not in any hurry to get a peace or ceasefire deal in Ukraine.
What this means is that the Trump doctrine of getting deals in Gaza, Ukraine, and Iran faces hurdles.
The decision to use force against the Houthis could be a test for what comes next. If the Houthis are not deterred, then will Iran be deterred? Initially, Iran distanced itself from the Houthis, but the US airstrikes have not prevented Houthi attacks on Israel.The Houthis have been targeting Israel almost every day for the last two weeks, using ballistic missiles. Recent indications point to them using a liquid-fueled missile, and they said they aimed the Zulfiqar missile at Ben-Gurion Airport. This is believed to be a variant of the Iranian-made Qiam family of missiles.
The overall challenge for the Trump administration is seeing if they can get a deal on any of these fronts. Hamas, for instance, let the first phase of the ceasefire deal expire on March 1. The terror group assumed Israel wouldn’t call its bluff, and indeed, Israel waited until March 18 to carry out limited strikes and ground operations in Gaza.
Israel is relying on the Trump administration for the parameters of a new deal with Hamas. Steve Witkoff, who the White House tapped for talks with Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, has many things to do now.
Can he focus on the pressure needed to get a deal between Israel and Hamas? Hamas wants a long ceasefire and wants to only release a few hostages. Israel says it has countered this with demands for more hostages to be released.
This is why April is so important for the Trump doctrine in the region. The bombing campaign on the Houthis, the Gaza ceasefire, the Iran talks, and the Russia talks are all up in the air. The administration is juggling many things at once.
Some of these deals are connected. Iran backs Russia and Hamas. Iran and Qatar have an amicable relationship, and Qatar hosts Hamas. Therefore, it’s possible that a grand bargain could take place that brings together many interests.
For instance, Russia, China, and Iran recently met in Beijing about Iran’s nuclear program. Saudi Arabia, a key US partner, has played a role in hosting Russia and Ukraine to work on the talks with the US. Meanwhile, the White House is also in talks with Turkey, and Ankara may want certain things from the US. Ankara could offer to help with Hamas or other cases, such as a new grain deal in the Black Sea.
There are other things afoot. The US administration may be considering what to do next with the US forces in eastern Syria and Iraq. The US has forces at Tanf Garrison in Syria near the Jordan-Iraq border, meaning America has an interest in the new Syrian government.
The new government in Damascus also has ramifications for Lebanon, which has also promised the US that it will crack down on Hezbollah and stabilize the country. Israel has made it clear it will not tolerate any threats from Lebanon or Syria and has stepped up bombing in both countries.
Turkey wants to back the new Syrian government, leading some people to believe that this sets up a potential clash between Israel and Turkey, something the Trump administration would not desire. This means that there is much to discuss regarding Syria, and the White House might be listening to Ankara’s concerns.
With so many moving parts in the region and globally, April will be a crucial month for the Trump administration.
