No two events in recent world affairs seem so far apart and are yet so connected as the Abraham Accords and the October 7 attack that led to the current war in Gaza. And yet, the events are intricately linked, flip sides of the same coin: the emergence of a rational, forward-looking, moderate and peace-seeking camp spearheaded by the UAE and Bahrain on one side of the Arab world backed by Saudi Arabia, and Morocco on the other; and the rebellion against that camp spearheaded by Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, backed by Iran, Syria, and Qatar. Just as the October 7 attack, in some measure, was meant to halt the expansion of the accords and undo them, the solution to Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria can lie in expanding and solidifying the Abraham Accords. The only question remains: Do the various actors have the foresight and determination to see through to phase two?
In late January, Donald Trump shocked the world, and perhaps his own advisers, by announcing his plan for Gaza’s reconstruction and rehabilitation that centers on removing the Gazans, a US takeover, and turning Gaza into a riviera. Seemingly by design, Arab leaders scrambled to come up with a viable alternative, at least to block Trump. However, it is important to consider that the winding down of the war, weakening of the Iran-backed axis, and the return of Trump to the White House offer an unprecedented perfect storm not just to strengthen and significantly expand the Abraham Accords but also harness the new solidified moderate axis to reconstruct and rehabilitate Gaza and the Palestinian project, sans Hamas.
Trump breaks out of the box, again
Outside-the-box thinking is nothing new for Trump. The very idea of the Abraham Accords broke the Middle East diplomacy paradigm by shedding the insistence that no country can have peace with Israel until a two-state solution is reached with the Palestinians. Perhaps, Trump and his team realized, it can very well be the other way around. Of significance, the Arab states had finally realized that it was Palestinian intransigence at fault at least as much if not more than Israeli foot-dragging, and Israel’s tech, military, and economic prowess were too important to leave on the sidelines of the emerging Middle East.
Arab world responses and the significance of Trump’s announcement
Expectedly, Arab states quickly rejected Trump’s proposal, with Egypt and Jordan fearing instability, while the Gulf states opposed displacement and reaffirmed support for Palestinian sovereignty.
Trump’s proposal forced Arab states to propose their own solutions, breaking diplomatic inertia.
On a deeper level, if there is one, the Arab world – and especially the Palestinian nationalist movement – might benefit from meeting the stark reality of what decades of rejectionism, belligerency, and selective outrage brings. That is, the Palestinian leadership has waged a nihilistic, decades-long legal, diplomatic, and psychological campaign to delegitimize Israel’s existence, and that is the supposed moderates. Hamas and other jihadist groups have only ramped up their efforts to fight Israel through vile acts of terror.
To this day, the Palestinian Authority has yet to condemn Hamas and the October 7 attack. If the Arab world facilitated, or at least played along with, the Palestinian delusion that Israel has no right to exist until recently, then why should the US continue supporting the Palestinian notion of sovereignty as an inalienable right, especially after October 7? At the very least, Trump and his team realized that the Overton window must shift to ensure that Hamas has no future role in Gaza’s rehabilitation or governance.
Egypt’s plan and Saudi’s leadership
Egypt, which used to occupy Gaza and has the closest diplomatic, intelligence, security, and family ties to it, was the first to suggest a viable alternative. The plan, thus far, would entail Egypt to oversee Gaza’s reconstruction while establishing safe zones to move Palestinians into inside Gaza, while Egyptian firms oversee infrastructure reconstruction.
Egypt’s proposed $53 billion reconstruction plan outlines phased development, which includes housing, infrastructure restoration, and security oversight under an independent force.
Execution and perfect storms
Notably missing from the 91-page plan was any mention of Hamas, and only a vague mention of the need to deal with armed factions. Hamas spokespeople have, in theory, agreed to step down from governance but remain unwilling to disarm. Aside from the notable avoidance of addressing Hamas and other militant groups directly, the details in the plan are as critical as its execution. Who will demilitarize Gaza and disarm Hamas? Will the Arab states commit to backing and funding such a process? Will Israel accept such a plan after suffering so traumatic a loss? Will Hamas accept being demilitarized and likely going into exile? And will the US and key Western powers commit to seeing the deal through rather than acquiescing to pressure from increasingly nihilistic extreme-left and Muslim constituents, especially in places dominated by progressive administrations?
The current moment offers an unprecedented window of opportunity for the region’s moderates that can solidify and expand the Abraham Accords, by tying the solution to Gaza into a regional breakthrough. For decades, it was Iran and its proxies’ stranglehold and pressure on the moderate axis, including through radicalizing their own citizens, that held back progress. However, with Iran severely weakened, Syria with a new regime, Hezbollah weakened in Lebanon, Hamas bloodied and having lost most of its arsenal, tunnels, and infrastructure (not to mention its fighting forces), and with Trump in the White House, the perfect storm has come together to launch Abraham Accords II.
Keys to success and potential hurdles
Due to the various moving parts, and the need to synchronize them, it is critical that a number of overarching agreements be reached through a regional and international framework:
Regional and international actors must ensure that Hamas is fully disarmed, excluded from governance, and its leadership removed from Gaza. Moreover, the so-called moderate Palestinians, and the entire Arab world, must unequivocally condemn Hamas for the October 7 attack, make clear to their citizens that no genocide took place, and that jihadist groups have no place in the new Middle East. The US must ensure that all remain committed to this goal, and maintain a strict line against allies who entertain such rhetoric or diplomatic pressures on Israel. The US has far more leverage over allies and moderate Arab states than it has currently wielded. It is time it uses its leverage.
Whether the Egyptian plan or something in between, at the Arab League summit Trump’s vision was clearly meant to spur Arab proactivity and for the region’s moderates to take ownership over Gaza. Putting a clear and sensible plan forward by the Arabs, to which they commit, is key.
Once such a process is underway, the US should seek to bring the Saudis to a normalization deal with Israel, which would have the full backing of the Arab League. Such a deal would open the door to many more Arab and Muslim countries, with talks even of Lebanon and Syria joining the accords. Of course, this would require the demilitarization of Hezbollah, and Saudi and American assurances that neither would revert to being an Iranian puppet. With Iran at an all-time low, Hezbollah on the ropes, and a new Syrian regime, a massive window of opportunity has opened. The last week’s renewal of sectarian violence and mass killings on ethnic and political lines remind us how precarious the region can be and why extremists must be kept in check.
The two biggest challenges, assuming all agree to the Arab initiative and US red lines regarding Hamas’ ouster, will remain Israel and Hamas.
Israel is understandably traumatized, while Hamas continues to play cruel psychological manipulations on Israel’s public and holds additional hostages meant for phase two of the ceasefire. Hamas will not likely give up all the hostages, as they are the only lifeline to its continued survival, and an assurance that Israel won’t resume the war.
Moreover, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states have insisted they cannot enter into a normalization deal and a Gaza solution without a political horizon toward a Palestinian state. As much as they cannot allow Hamas to resume power, they similarly cannot allow for the expansion of the accords without Israel agreeing to the potentiality of an independent Palestinian entity.
Israel would be wise to insist on setting an extremely high bar for reform and conduct in Gaza and major Palestinian cities in the West Bank, leaving the door open to greater Palestinian autonomy down the road. Perhaps, as it did with the UAE in 2020, it could commit to a freeze on talks of annexation for a five- to 10-year period, certainly outside major settlement blocs. These reforms would entail a complete deradicalization and re-education effort, demilitarization, and any other safeguard that ensures long-term moderation. Still, this would be a difficult pill for the Israeli public to swallow and would require significant carrots from the US, Saudis, and others. The specter of normalization and similar processes in Lebanon and Syria could help push the needle.
Lastly, how to get Hamas to participate and the regional extremist camp to sit quiet? The day the last hostage is returned to Israel, a US-led, regional effort should be launched to choke Hamas off diplomatically, financially, logistically, and with a serious threat of force that Israel can resume the war with full international backing should Hamas fail to comply with the plan. Much as Arafat and the PLO were offered to go into exile in other Arab countries following the Lebanese civil war and the Israeli invasion, those Hamas leaders who are left should be offered a similar life line in exchange for their participation. Such a move would require significant American, European, and Gulf pressure on Egypt and Qatar to similarly pressure Hamas.
The Trump plan has the opportunity to set into motion positive change in the region by finally forcing the Arab world to take responsibility and offer real solutions for their own future. The Egyptian plan is a good start to this, but the US, backed by EU partners, should take it as a floor and not a ceiling, and push the moderate Arab states to take a clear stand on Hamas, its disarmament, and clear disclusion from any Palestinian future. What should worry them most of all is not the potential expulsion of two million Gazans but rather how to rid the region of a nihilistic, genocidal group that has sparked at least six different rounds of fighting, including this most devastating one. By tying the expansion of the Abraham Accords to Gaza’s reconstruction, a window of opportunity has opened, and it is imperative that all sides rush to take advantage.■
The writer is co-chair of Sharaka, an Abraham Accords-focused NGO, a former IDF strategist and policy planner, speaker on Middle East affairs, and member of the Coalition for Regional Security.
