Mohammed Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, was killed on May 13. His death has now been confirmed. It was widely rumored to be true over the last ten days. However, Hamas hasn’t appeared to change its behavior in Gaza.
The group continues to cling to the central camps area of Nuseirat, Maghazi, Bureij and Deir al-Balah. It still has fighters in Gaza City. It also has some limited control over other parts of Gaza.
Hamas has lost its entire chain of command in Gaza. In many cases, its brigade and battalion commanders have been killed more than once. It has replaced them, and they were killed again. Sometimes it’s possible that the commanders on October 7 were replaced, and not only was the replacement killed, but his replacement as well.
Company commanders of the group are also decimated. This is according to the IDF reports and other assessments. It’s possible the reports are rosy and Hamas is in a better position than it looks.
Israel's mistakes in Gaza
For instance, Israel has been wrong in the past about assessments of success in Gaza. After the eleventh day of 2021 it was widely reported that the Hamas “Metro” of tunnels in Gaza was set back “years.” These reports were wrong. The metro was apparently not damaged very much, and Hamas repaired it in time for the October 2023 attack.
Hamas has always grown more powerful after wars with Israel. It has also replaced numerous leaders in the past. It has come back from blows such as losing Sheikh Yassin to an IDF airstrike, as well as Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi. Mahmoud Abdel Rauf al-Mabhouh, who was key to procuring weapons for Hamas, was also killed in 2010. A long list of Hamas leaders have come and gone.
The Sinwars helped build Hamas into the genocidal powerhouse it was on October 7. However, their deaths have appeared to come and go without much of a change in the organization’s behavior.
Yahya Sinwar was hunted down and killed in Tal al-Sultan near Rafah in October 2024. He was alone when he was killed. A few of his last comrades scattered. His death reminds us of the death of the Persian leader Darius III who died fleeing Alexander the Great. He also died after his empire and his men had melted away. However, Hamas doesn’t seem to be willing to give in.
This is what is perplexing about these tactical triumphs over the Hamas leaders in Gaza. Israel possesses great excellence in hunting down Hamas leaders and eliminating Hamas commanders. However, the larger strategy appears not to have met with tactical success. What that means is that as Hamas loses leaders, Hamas doesn’t seem to actually cave in. Now that could be changing as situations change on the ground in Gaza. The IDF’s new plan Gideon’s Chariots is supposed to press home the attack and seize ground, rather than the raiding strategy the IDF conducted in 2024.
Ceasefire-hostage deal discussions
However, the lack of collapse among the Hamas cadres in the Central Camps is still striking. The group appears to be recruiting many young people who are not willing to stand and fight. Its arsenal is depleted. It doesn’t seem to have much left. However, it holds 58 hostages and appears to continue to be able to communicate with its leaders in Doha when it comes to hostage deals.
In fact, the Hamas terms for these deals don’t seem to change, despite leadership losses. The deal of January 2025, was primarily similar to the one Hamas wanted throughout 2024. The deal being discussed now is similar to the one offered Hamas in March.
Hamas has some things it wants. It wants an end to the war. However, it never seems to be on the verge of collapse. Even if it is, the deaths of its leaders don’t seem to be leveraged in any kind of Clausewitz-like stratagem. Instead, Israel plods forward in tactical successes, without a clear post-war strategy or an exit strategy for Gaza, or even a way to replace Hamas with some other type of civilian authority. Hamas assumes all it has to do is wait and it will maintain some kind of control. Then it can find the next Sinwar to replace those who came before.
