The new Witkoff Proposal's "apparent irrelevance" may actually be the reason Israel should accept it, Lt. Col. (res.) Amit Yagur, former deputy head of the Palestinian Arena in the IDF Planning Directorate, suggested in an interview with Maariv on Friday.
"Yesterday, we opened with headlines that the US and Hamas are close to agreeing on the Witkoff Framework, which includes a new proposal. Without delving into the specifics, it involves a ceasefire, the release of about half the hostages, the release of prisoners in exchange, and guarantees for continued negotiations,” Yagur said.
“However, a framework that was appropriate and useful a month or two ago, focused on the military-security aspect, now operates within a completely different strategic context in Gaza—a civilian one."
“The new food distribution mechanism that began operating this week in the Gaza Strip is a major strategic turning point. For the first time, it strips Hamas of its main elements of sovereignty and begins to liberate the population from its grip, while preparations are underway for the implementation of a voluntary emigration plan,” Yagur explained.
“This is a process which, if not stopped now, is irreversible—and it’s putting Hamas under extreme pressure. The breach of Hamas flour warehouses by Gaza civilians, among other things, shows Hamas that even what remains of its military power is irrelevant here. The language has changed. This pressure may intensify to the point where Hamas will agree to release hostages just to halt the erosion—and ultimately even agree to exile its members and disarm,” Yagur continued.
Despite appearances suggesting that the current situation demands rejection of the Witkoff Proposal, Yagur believed otherwise. “At first glance, there are plenty of reasons to reject the Witkoff Framework, now that Hamas is with its back against the wall. Under the claim that we must ‘finish the job’ and dismantle Hamas—a goal we all share and want realized as soon as possible.”
“But,” he added, “if we dig a little deeper, we find that Israel, despite numerous threats in recent months, has not yet carried out full-scale, irreversible military operations to conquer Gaza. This could be in order to enable the release of more hostages, or perhaps due to a lack of political will, inability to act without incurring heavy costs for the hostages and our forces, or due to American requests in the background.”
“Thus, the so-called ‘completion of the mission’ through total military effort has not occurred, despite our ability to do so long ago. It's an empty concept at this stage,” he explained.
The civilian mechanism is what fatally wounds Hamas
“We need to look at the issue from a different angle—the strategic shift. The backbone of the campaign against Hamas today is mostly civilian (with military support). So, if the Witkoff Proposal primarily addresses the military-security dimension—an effort that has not significantly advanced on the ground—and does not interfere with the civilian campaign, then it actually serves three goals,” Yagur explained:
- Free additional hostages (since concessions like prisoner releases no longer impress the Gaza public and won't help Hamas maintain power).
- Temporarily relieve Israel of the need for ongoing military pressure that has not escalated, allowing focus on the more effective civilian campaign against Hamas, with the military dimension providing security backing.
- Align with US policy, particularly with Trump’s vision of ending military conflicts in the Middle East to make room for regional rehabilitation and a new order.
According to Yagur, any move that weakens the civilian mechanism is a strategic error:
“The continued need to provide security coverage for the civilian mechanism in the Gaza Strip and for border communities dictates a continued IDF presence in those areas. Israel must oppose any full withdrawal that could significantly harm the only mechanism currently dealing a severe blow to Hamas—the civilian one.”
A "seemingly irrelevant" proposal that might be just right
“In light of the above,” Yagur argued, “it’s precisely the irrelevance of the Witkoff Proposal to the current context that may make it worth accepting. Hostages will be released alive, while the process of Hamas’s civilian erosion will continue at an accelerated pace, and there will be no agreement to end the war.”
The security dimension (which the Witkoff Proposal focuses on) would provide security backing and control, while the actual military campaign could be paused. After 60 days, Yagur promises, “we’ll be dealing with a different Hamas—one willing to make very significant concessions, even to the point of disarmament and exile.”
However, Yagur emphasized one condition:
“The Witkoff Proposal will only be relevant if it does not halt the civilian process in Gaza. If, on the contrary, it calls for freezing the current aid mechanism, or seeks to revert to old frameworks like the UN or UNRWA and abandon the American-led system, then Israel must reject it outright, as that would not be the right format for dismantling Hamas via the civilian axis.”
