Iran is increasingly concerned that nuclear talks with the US will collapse. This message comes from Iran and other observers.
Iran went into the talks with some suspicion and divisions between the optimism that underpinned the Iranian president’s approach and the pessimism that underpinned the Supreme Leader’s views of the same talks.
For this reason, Iran insisted on “indirect” talks in Oman, which soon moved to Italy and then back to Oman. Oman is the host country, and Oman played a key role in the ceasefire that ended US airstrikes on the Houthis.
However, after initial success in April, the talks in May have hit a snag. It is not clear if things can be salvaged this week.
US President Donald Trump is heading to the Gulf, and therefore, the talks come at a sensitive time. Trump and his envoy, Steve Witkoff, could suddenly pull a rabbit out of the hat and proceed in a way that is acceptable to Iran. On the other hand, recent messaging from Washington has spoken about dismantling Iran’s nuclear program and preventing enrichment.
Iran won’t accept these terms.
What do we know about Iran’s official messaging? “Iran insists on its right to peaceful use of nuclear energy, including enrichment,” Iranian state media said on May 11 ahead of a new round of talks. “The [Iranian] Foreign Minister says that Iran has declared the acquisition and use of nuclear weapons as forbidden and has always been a committed member of the international non-proliferation regime.” Toward this end Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran “has declared the acquisition and use of nuclear weapons as forbidden and has always been a committed member of the international non-proliferation regime, but at the same time, it insists on its right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy, including enrichment.”
Araghchi made this statement at a conference in Doha. Qatar is very friendly toward Iran, and Doha also enjoys close ties with the West.
Doha would prefer that the Iran deal move forward. “We are not seeking nuclear weapons, and weapons of mass destruction have no place in Iran's security doctrine. That is why we were among the initiators of creating a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the West Asian region,” Iran’s top diplomat said. “It is necessary for Western countries and all those who claim to oppose nuclear weapons to refrain from double standards. We cannot claim to be concerned about the peaceful nuclear energy of Iran and other countries in the region, but allow an occupying, aggressor, and genocidal regime to possess a large arsenal of nuclear weapons,” he added.
Iran looks for other avenues to secure nuclear security amid US talks
Iran hints that it is balancing talks with the US and its own discussions with Europe, Russia, and China. Araghchi also met with his Saudi counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud. “During the meeting on Saturday, the two officials addressed key diplomatic issues and explored ways to enhance cooperation in tackling regional and international challenges,” IRNA said.
This is important because it comes ahead of Trump's coming to the region and meeting with Gulf leaders. After stopping in Saudi Arabia, the top Iranian diplomat headed for Doha, where he made the comments about the Iran nuclear talks.
Iran is already drawing up scenarios for possible “failure” in the talks, Al-Ain media in the UAE reported on May 11. This report noted that the previous round of talks scheduled to take place in Rome on May 3 had been postponed. On May 4 the Houthis launched a long range missile that struck near Israel’s Ben-Gurion International airport. Israel also approved plans for a new operation in Gaza, the same day. On May 5 and 6 Israel carried out strikes in Yemen and the US announced a ceasefire in Yemen, illustrating how fast things are moving.
An Iranian official told CNN: "The indirect talks with the United States, which aim to address Tehran's nuclear program and lift sanctions, are not serious on the American side and were likely designed from the beginning to be a trap to drag the situation towards tension." This illustrates how Iran is preparing for a possible train wreck ahead.
Tehran thinks it is being played. It watches the media interviews with US officials and the differing statements from Washington and its assessment has gone from optimism in mid-April, to deep pessimism today.
Iran thinks the US is not actually ready to discuss technical issues related to the program. Tehran also may believe this is a set-up, to create the pretext for failure to justify conflict. Iran’s regime believes Israel and pro-Israel voices are trying to sabotage the talks, a point that Iran’s foreign minister made last week as he headed for Pakistan.
Indeed, Iran likely views Pakistan as a model for how to possess nuclear weapons and deter adversaries. Iran, like Pakistan, is a friend of China. Iran likely saw how Pakistan was able to get the US to press for a ceasefire and how Pakistan used the conflict to its benefit. Iran may be friendly with India, but it learns tactics and strategy from Islamabad as well.
Iranian sources told the US media that "the United States provides brief, general answers to questions and ignores key proposals. This situation has led Iran to conclude that negotiations are unlikely to yield the desired outcome of sanctions relief and economic benefits. As a result, Tehran has been preparing the necessary scenarios over the past month." Uranium enrichment on Iranian soil is a red line for Iran in the negotiations, the CNN report noted.
Iran is likely concerned that Witkoff’s messaging appears to have changed. Witkoff has hardened his stance, according to recent reports, insisting that Iran won’t dismantle its enrichment facilities.
What might come next? Iran will want to see if it can get to the next stage of technical talks. If not, then Iran may move away from an agreement and see if its friends in other countries can speak to the US. Iran likely knows that the Trump administration doesn’t want to get involved in another war. However, Iran also wants sanctions relief.
