A new poll conducted by the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI)'s "Israeli Society Index" found that 60% of the public believe there is a real danger of civil war breaking out in Israel, the findings published on Thursday stated.
JPPIs poll was conducted in light of former Supreme Court chief justice Aharon Barak's March 20th warning that “we are an instant away from a civil war,” due to internal disputes.
The poll found that 27% of respondents agreed with Barak, while 33% said he is exaggerating but there is still a real danger of a civil war occurring.
The poll added that 16% believed there is no real danger of a civil war.
A majority of all political ideologies, except the right, believed that there was a real danger of civil war, the poll found.
Notably, a poll by Maariv found that 58% of Israelis feared a civil war amid the judicial reform crisis surrounding the reasonable standard law in July 2023, amid highly attended weekly nationwide protests which paused after Hamas's October 7 massacre.
Shin Bet chief and attorney-general dismissals
JPPI also surveyed public attitudes towards the legality of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attempting to fire Shin Bet Chief Ronen Bar, and the high court's attempts to intervene.
A slight majority of Israelis, at 51%, opposed the court intervening, with 40% believing that the court has no authority to intervene, while 11% believe they do have the authority but Bar's dismissal is justified.
A total of 38% of Israelis polled believe that the court should cancel Bar's dismissal.
Among the politically right-wing, 76% believed the court lacked authority, while 47% of center-right Israelis polled believed the same. A majority of those on the left believed that the court should cancel Bar's dismissal.
However, 53% of Israelis believe that the high court should not intervene in the dismissal of Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara. 35% believe that the court lacks the authority to intervene, and 18% believe that even if it does have the authority, her dismissal is justified.
The poll also found that 35% of respondents believe that high court should cancel Baharav-Miara's dismissal.
High Court rulings should be obeyed regardless
A large majority of those polled found that the government must respect any high court rulings, in the event that the court cancels either Bar's or Baharav-Miara's dismissal.
The poll's findings explained that 40% of respondents believed this because "otherwise, we’ll be dragged into a constitutional crisis," while 23% believed this because "the court is the authorized interpreter of the law.”
However, one-in-three Israelis polled believe that the government should not comply with a high court ruling.
Across all ideological groups, except the right-wing, a majority of respondents believe that the government should comply.
Only one-third of right-wing respondents agreed, while two-thirds argued that they should not comply with a court ruling.
Does the 'deep state' exist?
Right-wing Israelis, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, believe in the existence of a "deep state" where heads of the country's public institutions use their institutional power in "the service of the left" including using "the judicial system in a distorted way to thwart the will of the people," as Netanyahu wrote on social media.
Two-fifths of Israelis believe that Netanyahu is "wrong," another two-fifths believe that he is "right," and one-fifth believe that he "is exaggerating." This latter group believe that there is a problem of balance between different government branches in Israel, but that does not amount to a "deep state."
Political alignment also correlated with respondents' likelihood to believe in a "deep state" with 79% of right-wing people agreeing with the prime minister, while 87% of the left, 76% of the center-left, and 61% of the center believe that Netanyahu is wrong.
Among Likud voters polled, 82% agreed with Netanyahu, 12% believe he is exaggerating, and 4% disagreed.
In total, 58% of respondents did not agree that a "deep state" exists.
JPPI executive comments
JPPI's Vice President Dr. Shuki Friedman commented on the poll stating that "we are on the eve of Passover, a time marked by gathering around Jewish tradition and greater unity, but the data show that Israelis fear we are dangerously sliding down a slope that could lead to even harsher internal conflict."
"When the right and left are deeply divided in their interpretation of reality and the willingness of the right to obey the court decreases, this danger increases," Friedman added.
"Israelis must demand that their leaders halt this deterioration and act toward reconciliation, a more moderate discourse, and express this in their actions as well," he concluded.
