With Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara at least protecting Shin Bet Chief Ronen Bar from being fired for now until the Qatargate probe into Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s aides is concluded, any change for running the agency may wait a month or even until May or later.
But with everything that has happened between Netanyahu and Bar in recent days and weeks, his days are numbered, even if he is able to hold on for some period of weeks or months.
So, who are the leading candidates to replace him? The Jerusalem Post surveyed a variety of former Shin Bet officials.
"M" the leading candidate?
“M” – the leading candidate is the most recent deputy chief of the Shin Bet, known for now only as “M,” who stepped down in late 2024, only to return in early February to assist with negotiations with Qatar over the Israeli hostages held by Hamas.
"M" is known as an “Arabist” and has served at all of the key levels of the Shin Bet. Former senior Shin Bet official Arik Barbing and other former senior officials from the agency said that he is fully qualified. The fact that Netanyahu put him onto the hostage negotiation team could signal that he also has the prime minister’s support.
If he wins the “race,” much of the current controversy may fade since he is supported by all parties. "M" almost quit after October 7, given that he was deputy chief at the time, but after an initial probe, he was found not to be personally responsible any more than many other officials throughout the defense establishment.
He then went on to run the Shin Bet’s massive interventions during the war. "M" would become the second religious leader of the agency after Yoram Cohen 2011-2016.
"R," a former deputy chief
“R” is probably the next in line after "M," having been deputy chief of the Shin Bet before Bar himself and having barely lost a close race to Bar to be chief back in 2021. He also headed the Jerusalem and West Bank Division.
Senior Shin Bret sources say that "R" has a bigger world view when it comes to technology, collection and analysis of intelligence issues. Some Shin Bet sources also point out that "R" was involved in major defense situations during the 2014 Gaza war.
After retiring from the Shin Bet, "R" served in key positions in the Defense Ministry’s MAFAT weapons development area. Further, "R" returned to assist the Shin Bet southern command during its massive operations during this war after October 7.
In addition, some Shin Bet sources say that "R" is more beloved and inspires more social cohesion among the rank and file of the agency.
But "R" may have burned some bridges with an interview that he gave to Channel 12’s Uvda following the 2014 Operation Protective Edge. He claimed the agency had warned the IDF and Netanyahu that Hamas was ready to fight, but was ignored.
This won him some enemies – including some who hold him responsible for failing to sound the alarm about Hamas loud enough in 2014.
In the post-October 7 atmosphere and with intensified tensions between the prime minister and the agency now, Netanyahu may be even less likely to take someone with a record of pointing the finger at the political echelon.
According to Barbing, what sets these two top candidates apart from any others is that they are both Arabists who can speak Arabic the way Arabs do and understand their mentality and culture in a deep way because they have “tasted” that culture up close in the field, not just studied it from afar.
"S," the current deputy
“S” is the current Shin Bet deputy chief. He also gets top marks from senior Shin Bet sources, but given that he has only been deputy chief for a period of months, and both "M" and "R" served full terms there, each of them would seem to have an edge over "S" at this time.
But "S" has served in top positions in both operations and analysis, including heading the anti-terror division, so Barbing said he would still be a solid candidate. "S" grew up religious, though he is not today.
Barbing said any of the above three candidates could help lead the Shin Bet back to a focus on classic intelligence and to move away from an overemphasis on tactical operations and use of technology, while deemphasizing human intelligence to some extent, something he says happened under both Bar and Nadav Argaman 2016-2021.
Meir Ben-Shabbat, former NSC chief
Meir Ben-Shabbat – More of an outside shot, but still in the running is Netanyahu’s former national security council chief 2017-2021 and senior Shin Bet official Meir Ben Shabbat.
Netanyahu wanted to make him the next chief after Nadav Argaman in 2021, but was forced from office by Naftali Bennett, who appointed Bar. While Ben-Shabbat has some support within the Shin Bet because he was a senior official there, serving as a division head in three different capacities, there are also many in the agency who have threatened to resign if he is appointed.
For them, he is seen as too close and compliant with Netanyahu’s requests and there are concerns that he would promote Netanyahu’s political agenda over professional considerations.
Normally, he also would not be in the running because he was not a deputy chief, but some former Shin Bet officials say that his time as NSC chief and his unusual strategic acumen keep him in the running.
Shalom Ben Hanan, former senior official
Shalom Ben Hanan – He retired from the agency in 2022 after 27 years at the equivalent rank of a major general in charge of two different whole divisions in comparison to IDF ranks.
The two divisions were Jerusalem and the West Bank and the Counterintelligence Division. He has also made some public statements criticizing Bar for injecting the Shin Bet into certain political sagas, saying that the agency must stay razor-focused on security issues only.
Such a position could find favor with Netanyahu, while at the same time, Ben Hanan has been affiliated with Reichman University, which might give the prime minister hesitation because of its left-center politics but could boost broader support for him. Still, he was not a deputy Shin Bet chief, so he would be an unconventional choice.
Barbing expressed concern that whoever heads the Shin Bet next must hold their ground and speak truth to the political echelon about security threats even if the agency’s views are inconvenient politically.
He said this is a challenge because, unlike the IDF, where a variety of top officials interact with the political echelon beyond the IDF chief, only the Shin Bet director himself interacts directly with the political class.
